France scales up targeted fuel price relief, says finance minister - uk.finance.yahoo.com
France scales up targeted fuel price relief, says finance minister uk.finance.yahoo.com
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France scales up targeted fuel price relief, says finance minister uk.finance.yahoo.com
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$BETR: down 58% on a $229M mortgage lender and adding. The AI origination thesis, the balance sheet that could kill it, and the math to $100. Position: 1,479 shares. Unrealized: -58%. I am not going to bury the ticker. It is Better Home & Finance, NASDAQ: BETR, $12.17, $229M market cap, 19M shares outstanding. It traded at $94.06 in October 2025. It is the worst performing position I own and I think it is the best risk reward I own. Both of those are true at once, which is the whole post. The macro thesis first, because it is the floor under everything Most Americans have no money in the stock market. The only real asset they own is their house. They pay into it for thirty years and by retirement it has turned into wealth, and historically the return has been quite good. If homes stay unaffordable, most Americans end up with no long term asset at all. That is not a housing problem, it is a social stability problem, and it is the kind of problem political systems eventually respond to. So I believe American politicians and the system will make housing affordable, because the alternative is a generation with no balance sheet. The "young Americans aren't buying homes" narrative is mostly a myth. Prices rose violently and rates went from under 3% to 6-7%. That is an affordability problem, not a preference problem. Redfin's numbers: among 28 year olds in 2025, about 38% of Gen Z owned their home, against roughly 43% of Gen X and 44% of boomers at the same age. Among 36 year olds, about 57% of millennials owned, against roughly 61% and 64%. The gap is real but it is small. These are people who want to buy and cannot afford to. When the rate environment improves, transaction volume comes back. Supply comes back too, because boomers will die and their houses will hit the market. So whether the Fed cuts or hikes this quarter, I see a good housing market in the long term. I have believed this for a year and been wrong for a year on timing. Housing stocks are in terrible shape right now. That is why I think this is the moment to take the position, and it is also why you should assume I am early again. Why BETR and not a boring originator Because BETR is three bets stacked on one ticker: housing, AI adoption, and crypto rails. That combination does not exist anywhere else at a $229M market cap. On AI, the market is still paying for infrastructure. Chips, data centers, power. The second order trade is the companies using AI to restructure their own industry. The bottleneck right now is not model capability, it is adoption. Large companies cannot figure out how to rewire workflows around AI. So the companies that started absorbing it years ago have a head start that is hard to buy. Better built Tinman, their origination platform, years before it was fashionable. Platform loan volume went from $163M to $912M year over year and is now 55% of total production. That is the asset light channel: other people's distribution running on Better's underwriting stack, with no marketing spend attached. And the operating numbers are not what a dying company looks like: Q1 2026: revenue $48M, up 52% YoY. Loan volume $1.64B, up 89%. Q2 2026: revenue $54.7M, up 28% YoY. Loan volume $1.67B, up 38%. They did that while mortgage applications industry-wide fell over 15%. That is share gain in the worst origination environment since 2007. The price is where it is for a reason that has nothing to do with any of this. The board pushed out founder CEO Vishal Garg in early August. The stock started falling that day. The board then put in a poison pill on August 20. Garg launched a consent solicitation to remove five directors, extended his deadline three times, and is now at October 2. ISS and Glass Lewis both recommended shareholders back the current board. Key leadership departures were announced September 8. There is still no permanent CEO. A governance war knocked this from $25 to $12. That is an external factor, not an operating one, and those create openings. THE BEAR CASE (why I might be a bagholder forever) The balance sheet is the bear case and it is not close. $102.3M of cash. $198.8M of senior notes. Net cash used in operations for the first six months of 2026 was $101.7M. Q3 guidance is another $15M to $18M adjusted EBITDA loss. And adjusted EBITDA flatters everything, because it excludes stock comp, warrant marks, and the UK bank write-down. GAAP net loss was $70M in Q1 and $30.6M in Q2. Q2's adjusted EBITDA of -$14.0M also included a one-time $6.5M TRID reserve release, so the clean number is closer to -$20M. Run that forward. They need capital before those notes come due. They already raised $69M in Q1. The next raise is not a question of whether, it is a question of at what price, and a microcap raising at $12 after raising higher is how permanent dilution happens. 19M shares becoming 30M shares cuts my upside by a third without one thing changing about the business. Second, the AI story cuts both ways. Every originator now says the same sentence about AI, and Rocket and UWM have the balance sheets to buy what they cannot build. Being early only matters if it produces a structurally lower cost per loan that survives scale. Better has never printed a profitable quarter, so we have no proof it does. The bear reading is that the cost advantage is just "we are small and have no branches," which stops mattering the moment volume returns and fixed costs get spread for everyone. Third, the governance mess is a real cost, not a temporary discount. Whoever wins inherits a company that spent a year fighting itself instead of fixing unit economics, and the losing side's shareholders may sell. Fourth, being right on macro does not save me. If rates fall in 2027, every originator benefits, including the profitable ones. I need the cycle and a margin transformation and a governance resolution and no bad raise. Four things. So far, zero. If the burn continues and they raise badly, this equity is a call option on the notes getting covered, and book value is about $3 a share. THE BULL CASE Start with what the market has already paid. In October 2025 this traded at $94.06, up 559% on the year, on a worse balance sheet and lower revenue than today. Whatever you think of that price, it tells you the ceiling here is set by narrative, not by a spreadsheet. The HELOC pivot is the underrated part. HELOCs carry higher gain on sale margins than refis and do not require rates to fall. Home equity volume grew 45% quarter over quarter. This is the product that works while we wait for the Fed, which means breakeven may not need the cycle at all. Management raised the annualized cost reduction target to over $45M by year end against roughly a $14M to $20M quarterly EBITDA loss. Those two lines crossing is the entire near term thesis. The crypto channel is a real distribution surface, not a press release. The Coinbase token-backed conforming mortgage went generally available on August 26. Coinbase One members now get up to $10,000 in HELOC rebates. Roughly 8% of US adults hold crypto, skewed young, skewed toward exactly the first-time buyers otherwise locked out of housing. No large originator is competing for that customer. Analysts have not given up either: average target around $28, B. Riley initiated Buy at $26, BTIG at $23. Cantor cut to $16 in August, which is still 30% above spot. The low end of the sell side is a gain from here. And the structure: 19M shares outstanding, average volume under 600k, and short interest most recently reported around 26% of float and rising. That is a very small, very crowded boat. WHY THIS COULD BE A $100 STOCK I want to be honest about how this number works, because the DCF does not get you there. $100 on 19M shares is a $1.9B market cap. Add realistic dilution to 23M shares and it is $2.3B. Here is the chain. Step one, the cycle turns. In the 2020-2021 refi boom Better funded roughly $58B of annual loan volume. Today they are running about $6.7B annualized. I am not asking for 2021. I am asking for a quarter of it. $15B of annual volume at roughly a 3% net revenue margin is about $450M of revenue, 2.4x today. Step two, the margin shows up. At $450M to $600M of revenue with an 18% operating margin that is $80M to $110M pre-tax, and the NOLs mean the cash tax bill is near zero for years. Call it $70M to $90M of net income. Step three, the market pays a platform multiple instead of a lender multiple. This is the part that has to be believed, not modeled. At 20x, $90M of earnings is $1.8B, roughly $80 a share. At 25x it is $100. RKT and UWMC trade at lender multiples because they are lenders. If Tinman is genuinely software that originates loans rather than a lender with a nice website, the comp set is not RKT, and the multiple is not 12x. So the fundamental path to $100 is: rates down, volume to $15B+, breakeven crossed and profitability proven, no catastrophic raise, governance settled, and a re-rating from originator to platform. Six things. Each plausible. All six together is not a base case. And then there is the faster path. 26% of a 19M share float is short, volume is under 600k a day, and the last time sentiment flipped on this ticker it went from $8 to $94 in nine months. A squeeze does not need earnings. It needs a catalyst, and three are queued: the October 2 consent deadline resolving, a permanent CEO announcement, and the first breakeven quarter. Any one of those into a 26% short float with no liquidity does not move this 20%. It gaps it. I am not claiming $100 is the expected value. A straight DCF puts fair value around $12, which is exactly where it trades, and the outer edge of a defensible model is about $30. $100 is the tail. The tail is the only reason to own a microcap with a broken balance sheet instead of just buying RKT. What kills this thesis Adjusted EBITDA still worse than -$10M by Q1 2027, or an equity raise priced below $10. Either one and I am wrong, I close it, and I post the loss porn. Position: 1,479 shares, -58%, money I can afford to watch go to zero. Not advice. I am a regard here, not your financial advisor. Do your own DD. submitted by /u/GrowthMLR [link] [comments]
French finance ministry expects record debt in 2026, reaching nearly 120% of GDP Yahoo Finance UK
France scales up targeted fuel price relief, says finance minister uk.finance.yahoo.com
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A lawsuit accuses UK users of running six coordinated accounts to pull at least $278,000 from X's now-defunct Creator Revenue Sharing Program.
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$BETR: down 58% on a $229M mortgage lender and adding. The AI origination thesis, the balance sheet that could kill it, and the math to $100. Position: 1,479 shares. Unrealized: -58%. I am not going to bury the ticker. It is Better Home & Finance, NASDAQ: BETR, $12.17, $229M market cap, 19M shares outstanding. It traded at $94.06 in October 2025. It is the worst performing position I own and I think it is the best risk reward I own. Both of those are true at once, which is the whole post. The macro thesis first, because it is the floor under everything Most Americans have no money in the stock market. The only real asset they own is their house. They pay into it for thirty years and by retirement it has turned into wealth, and historically the return has been quite good. If homes stay unaffordable, most Americans end up with no long term asset at all. That is not a housing problem, it is a social stability problem, and it is the kind of problem political systems eventually respond to. So I believe American politicians and the system will make housing affordable, because the alternative is a generation with no balance sheet. The "young Americans aren't buying homes" narrative is mostly a myth. Prices rose violently and rates went from under 3% to 6-7%. That is an affordability problem, not a preference problem. Redfin's numbers: among 28 year olds in 2025, about 38% of Gen Z owned their home, against roughly 43% of Gen X and 44% of boomers at the same age. Among 36 year olds, about 57% of millennials owned, against roughly 61% and 64%. The gap is real but it is small. These are people who want to buy and cannot afford to. When the rate environment improves, transaction volume comes back. Supply comes back too, because boomers will die and their houses will hit the market. So whether the Fed cuts or hikes this quarter, I see a good housing market in the long term. I have believed this for a year and been wrong for a year on timing. Housing stocks are in terrible shape right now. That is why I think this is the moment to take the position, and it is also why you should assume I am early again. Why BETR and not a boring originator Because BETR is three bets stacked on one ticker: housing, AI adoption, and crypto rails. That combination does not exist anywhere else at a $229M market cap. On AI, the market is still paying for infrastructure. Chips, data centers, power. The second order trade is the companies using AI to restructure their own industry. The bottleneck right now is not model capability, it is adoption. Large companies cannot figure out how to rewire workflows around AI. So the companies that started absorbing it years ago have a head start that is hard to buy. Better built Tinman, their origination platform, years before it was fashionable. Platform loan volume went from $163M to $912M year over year and is now 55% of total production. That is the asset light channel: other people's distribution running on Better's underwriting stack, with no marketing spend attached. And the operating numbers are not what a dying company looks like: Q1 2026: revenue $48M, up 52% YoY. Loan volume $1.64B, up 89%. Q2 2026: revenue $54.7M, up 28% YoY. Loan volume $1.67B, up 38%. They did that while mortgage applications industry-wide fell over 15%. That is share gain in the worst origination environment since 2007. The price is where it is for a reason that has nothing to do with any of this. The board pushed out founder CEO Vishal Garg in early August. The stock started falling that day. The board then put in a poison pill on August 20. Garg launched a consent solicitation to remove five directors, extended his deadline three times, and is now at October 2. ISS and Glass Lewis both recommended shareholders back the current board. Key leadership departures were announced September 8. There is still no permanent CEO. A governance war knocked this from $25 to $12. That is an external factor, not an operating one, and those create openings. THE BEAR CASE (why I might be a bagholder forever) The balance sheet is the bear case and it is not close. $102.3M of cash. $198.8M of senior notes. Net cash used in operations for the first six months of 2026 was $101.7M. Q3 guidance is another $15M to $18M adjusted EBITDA loss. And adjusted EBITDA flatters everything, because it excludes stock comp, warrant marks, and the UK bank write-down. GAAP net loss was $70M in Q1 and $30.6M in Q2. Q2's adjusted EBITDA of -$14.0M also included a one-time $6.5M TRID reserve release, so the clean number is closer to -$20M. Run that forward. They need capital before those notes come due. They already raised $69M in Q1. The next raise is not a question of whether, it is a question of at what price, and a microcap raising at $12 after raising higher is how permanent dilution happens. 19M shares becoming 30M shares cuts my upside by a third without one thing changing about the business. Second, the AI story cuts both ways. Every originator now says the same sentence about AI, and Rocket and UWM have the balance sheets to buy what they cannot build. Being early only matters if it produces a structurally lower cost per loan that survives scale. Better has never printed a profitable quarter, so we have no proof it does. The bear reading is that the cost advantage is just "we are small and have no branches," which stops mattering the moment volume returns and fixed costs get spread for everyone. Third, the governance mess is a real cost, not a temporary discount. Whoever wins inherits a company that spent a year fighting itself instead of fixing unit economics, and the losing side's shareholders may sell. Fourth, being right on macro does not save me. If rates fall in 2027, every originator benefits, including the profitable ones. I need the cycle and a margin transformation and a governance resolution and no bad raise. Four things. So far, zero. If the burn continues and they raise badly, this equity is a call option on the notes getting covered, and book value is about $3 a share. THE BULL CASE Start with what the market has already paid. In October 2025 this traded at $94.06, up 559% on the year, on a worse balance sheet and lower revenue than today. Whatever you think of that price, it tells you the ceiling here is set by narrative, not by a spreadsheet. The HELOC pivot is the underrated part. HELOCs carry higher gain on sale margins than refis and do not require rates to fall. Home equity volume grew 45% quarter over quarter. This is the product that works while we wait for the Fed, which means breakeven may not need the cycle at all. Management raised the annualized cost reduction target to over $45M by year end against roughly a $14M to $20M quarterly EBITDA loss. Those two lines crossing is the entire near term thesis. The crypto channel is a real distribution surface, not a press release. The Coinbase token-backed conforming mortgage went generally available on August 26. Coinbase One members now get up to $10,000 in HELOC rebates. Roughly 8% of US adults hold crypto, skewed young, skewed toward exactly the first-time buyers otherwise locked out of housing. No large originator is competing for that customer. Analysts have not given up either: average target around $28, B. Riley initiated Buy at $26, BTIG at $23. Cantor cut to $16 in August, which is still 30% above spot. The low end of the sell side is a gain from here. And the structure: 19M shares outstanding, average volume under 600k, and short interest most recently reported around 26% of float and rising. That is a very small, very crowded boat. WHY THIS COULD BE A $100 STOCK I want to be honest about how this number works, because the DCF does not get you there. $100 on 19M shares is a $1.9B market cap. Add realistic dilution to 23M shares and it is $2.3B. Here is the chain. Step one, the cycle turns. In the 2020-2021 refi boom Better funded roughly $58B of annual loan volume. Today they are running about $6.7B annualized. I am not asking for 2021. I am asking for a quarter of it. $15B of annual volume at roughly a 3% net revenue margin is about $450M of revenue, 2.4x today. Step two, the margin shows up. At $450M to $600M of revenue with an 18% operating margin that is $80M to $110M pre-tax, and the NOLs mean the cash tax bill is near zero for years. Call it $70M to $90M of net income. Step three, the market pays a platform multiple instead of a lender multiple. This is the part that has to be believed, not modeled. At 20x, $90M of earnings is $1.8B, roughly $80 a share. At 25x it is $100. RKT and UWMC trade at lender multiples because they are lenders. If Tinman is genuinely software that originates loans rather than a lender with a nice website, the comp set is not RKT, and the multiple is not 12x. So the fundamental path to $100 is: rates down, volume to $15B+, breakeven crossed and profitability proven, no catastrophic raise, governance settled, and a re-rating from originator to platform. Six things. Each plausible. All six together is not a base case. And then there is the faster path. 26% of a 19M share float is short, volume is under 600k a day, and the last time sentiment flipped on this ticker it went from $8 to $94 in nine months. A squeeze does not need earnings. It needs a catalyst, and three are queued: the October 2 consent deadline resolving, a permanent CEO announcement, and the first breakeven quarter. Any one of those into a 26% short float with no liquidity does not move this 20%. It gaps it. I am not claiming $100 is the expected value. A straight DCF puts fair value around $12, which is exactly where it trades, and the outer edge of a defensible model is about $30. $100 is the tail. The tail is the only reason to own a microcap with a broken balance sheet instead of just buying RKT. What kills this thesis Adjusted EBITDA still worse than -$10M by Q1 2027, or an equity raise priced below $10. Either one and I am wrong, I close it, and I post the loss porn. Position: 1,479 shares, -58%, money I can afford to watch go to zero. Not advice. I am a regard here, not your financial advisor. Do your own DD. submitted by /u/GrowthMLR [link] [comments]
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