reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
DD: $HESAY (Hermès) is down to 31x P/E for the first time since 2015. Generational entry point or catching a falling knife?
2026-09-21T08:37:05+00:00
Planning to start buying into $HESAY because my tech-heavy portfolio needs a babysitter that actually makes a profit. If I'm feeling spicy might even buy some LEAPs. I’ve been holding $RACE (Ferrari) for a few months and watching it slowly go up. Naturally, my smooth brain started looking for other European luxury monopolies to buy into. Usually, this stock is completely untouchable because euro-snobs price it at astronomical multiples. But thanks to the entire European luxury sector throwing a temper tantrum over Chinese consumer spending, $HESAY actually caught a stray and sold off. The Math (For those who can read): 10-Year Median P/E: ~49.2x (this thing usually trades at 50x–60x+ when market is horny) Trailing P/E (TTM): ~31.3x Forward P/E (NTM): ~26.8x The last time $HESAY was sitting at a ~31x trailing P/E was 11 years ago in 2015/2016 . Even during the March 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 rate hike apocalypse, it barely flinched compared to this. submitted by /u/kingchungo [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
$BETR: down 58% on a $229M mortgage lender and adding. The AI origination thesis, the balance sheet that could kill it, and the math to $100
2026-09-19T18:49:52+00:00
$BETR: down 58% on a $229M mortgage lender and adding. The AI origination thesis, the balance sheet that could kill it, and the math to $100. Position: 1,479 shares. Unrealized: -58%. I am not going to bury the ticker. It is Better Home & Finance, NASDAQ: BETR, $12.17, $229M market cap, 19M shares outstanding. It traded at $94.06 in October 2025. It is the worst performing position I own and I think it is the best risk reward I own. Both of those are true at once, which is the whole post. The macro thesis first, because it is the floor under everything Most Americans have no money in the stock market. The only real asset they own is their house. They pay into it for thirty years and by retirement it has turned into wealth, and historically the return has been quite good. If homes stay unaffordable, most Americans end up with no long term asset at all. That is not a housing problem, it is a social stability problem, and it is the kind of problem political systems eventually respond to. So I believe American politicians and the system will make housing affordable, because the alternative is a generation with no balance sheet. The "young Americans aren't buying homes" narrative is mostly a myth. Prices rose violently and rates went from under 3% to 6-7%. That is an affordability problem, not a preference problem. Redfin's numbers: among 28 year olds in 2025, about 38% of Gen Z owned their home, against roughly 43% of Gen X and 44% of boomers at the same age. Among 36 year olds, about 57% of millennials owned, against roughly 61% and 64%. The gap is real but it is small. These are people who want to buy and cannot afford to. When the rate environment improves, transaction volume comes back. Supply comes back too, because boomers will die and their houses will hit the market. So whether the Fed cuts or hikes this quarter, I see a good housing market in the long term. I have believed this for a year and been wrong for a year on timing. Housing stocks are in terrible shape right now. That is why I think this is the moment to take the position, and it is also why you should assume I am early again. Why BETR and not a boring originator Because BETR is three bets stacked on one ticker: housing, AI adoption, and crypto rails. That combination does not exist anywhere else at a $229M market cap. On AI, the market is still paying for infrastructure. Chips, data centers, power. The second order trade is the companies using AI to restructure their own industry. The bottleneck right now is not model capability, it is adoption. Large companies cannot figure out how to rewire workflows around AI. So the companies that started absorbing it years ago have a head start that is hard to buy. Better built Tinman, their origination platform, years before it was fashionable. Platform loan volume went from $163M to $912M year over year and is now 55% of total production. That is the asset light channel: other people's distribution running on Better's underwriting stack, with no marketing spend attached. And the operating numbers are not what a dying company looks like: Q1 2026: revenue $48M, up 52% YoY. Loan volume $1.64B, up 89%. Q2 2026: revenue $54.7M, up 28% YoY. Loan volume $1.67B, up 38%. They did that while mortgage applications industry-wide fell over 15%. That is share gain in the worst origination environment since 2007. The price is where it is for a reason that has nothing to do with any of this. The board pushed out founder CEO Vishal Garg in early August. The stock started falling that day. The board then put in a poison pill on August 20. Garg launched a consent solicitation to remove five directors, extended his deadline three times, and is now at October 2. ISS and Glass Lewis both recommended shareholders back the current board. Key leadership departures were announced September 8. There is still no permanent CEO. A governance war knocked this from $25 to $12. That is an external factor, not an operating one, and those create openings. THE BEAR CASE (why I might be a bagholder forever) The balance sheet is the bear case and it is not close. $102.3M of cash. $198.8M of senior notes. Net cash used in operations for the first six months of 2026 was $101.7M. Q3 guidance is another $15M to $18M adjusted EBITDA loss. And adjusted EBITDA flatters everything, because it excludes stock comp, warrant marks, and the UK bank write-down. GAAP net loss was $70M in Q1 and $30.6M in Q2. Q2's adjusted EBITDA of -$14.0M also included a one-time $6.5M TRID reserve release, so the clean number is closer to -$20M. Run that forward. They need capital before those notes come due. They already raised $69M in Q1. The next raise is not a question of whether, it is a question of at what price, and a microcap raising at $12 after raising higher is how permanent dilution happens. 19M shares becoming 30M shares cuts my upside by a third without one thing changing about the business. Second, the AI story cuts both ways. Every originator now says the same sentence about AI, and Rocket and UWM have the balance sheets to buy what they cannot build. Being early only matters if it produces a structurally lower cost per loan that survives scale. Better has never printed a profitable quarter, so we have no proof it does. The bear reading is that the cost advantage is just "we are small and have no branches," which stops mattering the moment volume returns and fixed costs get spread for everyone. Third, the governance mess is a real cost, not a temporary discount. Whoever wins inherits a company that spent a year fighting itself instead of fixing unit economics, and the losing side's shareholders may sell. Fourth, being right on macro does not save me. If rates fall in 2027, every originator benefits, including the profitable ones. I need the cycle and a margin transformation and a governance resolution and no bad raise. Four things. So far, zero. If the burn continues and they raise badly, this equity is a call option on the notes getting covered, and book value is about $3 a share. THE BULL CASE Start with what the market has already paid. In October 2025 this traded at $94.06, up 559% on the year, on a worse balance sheet and lower revenue than today. Whatever you think of that price, it tells you the ceiling here is set by narrative, not by a spreadsheet. The HELOC pivot is the underrated part. HELOCs carry higher gain on sale margins than refis and do not require rates to fall. Home equity volume grew 45% quarter over quarter. This is the product that works while we wait for the Fed, which means breakeven may not need the cycle at all. Management raised the annualized cost reduction target to over $45M by year end against roughly a $14M to $20M quarterly EBITDA loss. Those two lines crossing is the entire near term thesis. The crypto channel is a real distribution surface, not a press release. The Coinbase token-backed conforming mortgage went generally available on August 26. Coinbase One members now get up to $10,000 in HELOC rebates. Roughly 8% of US adults hold crypto, skewed young, skewed toward exactly the first-time buyers otherwise locked out of housing. No large originator is competing for that customer. Analysts have not given up either: average target around $28, B. Riley initiated Buy at $26, BTIG at $23. Cantor cut to $16 in August, which is still 30% above spot. The low end of the sell side is a gain from here. And the structure: 19M shares outstanding, average volume under 600k, and short interest most recently reported around 26% of float and rising. That is a very small, very crowded boat. WHY THIS COULD BE A $100 STOCK I want to be honest about how this number works, because the DCF does not get you there. $100 on 19M shares is a $1.9B market cap. Add realistic dilution to 23M shares and it is $2.3B. Here is the chain. Step one, the cycle turns. In the 2020-2021 refi boom Better funded roughly $58B of annual loan volume. Today they are running about $6.7B annualized. I am not asking for 2021. I am asking for a quarter of it. $15B of annual volume at roughly a 3% net revenue margin is about $450M of revenue, 2.4x today. Step two, the margin shows up. At $450M to $600M of revenue with an 18% operating margin that is $80M to $110M pre-tax, and the NOLs mean the cash tax bill is near zero for years. Call it $70M to $90M of net income. Step three, the market pays a platform multiple instead of a lender multiple. This is the part that has to be believed, not modeled. At 20x, $90M of earnings is $1.8B, roughly $80 a share. At 25x it is $100. RKT and UWMC trade at lender multiples because they are lenders. If Tinman is genuinely software that originates loans rather than a lender with a nice website, the comp set is not RKT, and the multiple is not 12x. So the fundamental path to $100 is: rates down, volume to $15B+, breakeven crossed and profitability proven, no catastrophic raise, governance settled, and a re-rating from originator to platform. Six things. Each plausible. All six together is not a base case. And then there is the faster path. 26% of a 19M share float is short, volume is under 600k a day, and the last time sentiment flipped on this ticker it went from $8 to $94 in nine months. A squeeze does not need earnings. It needs a catalyst, and three are queued: the October 2 consent deadline resolving, a permanent CEO announcement, and the first breakeven quarter. Any one of those into a 26% short float with no liquidity does not move this 20%. It gaps it. I am not claiming $100 is the expected value. A straight DCF puts fair value around $12, which is exactly where it trades, and the outer edge of a defensible model is about $30. $100 is the tail. The tail is the only reason to own a microcap with a broken balance sheet instead of just buying RKT. What kills this thesis Adjusted EBITDA still worse than -$10M by Q1 2027, or an equity raise priced below $10. Either one and I am wrong, I close it, and I post the loss porn. Position: 1,479 shares, -58%, money I can afford to watch go to zero. Not advice. I am a regard here, not your financial advisor. Do your own DD. submitted by /u/GrowthMLR [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Dow (DOW) Stock May Be 35% Undervalued As Cash Flow Recovers - Yahoo Finance
2026-09-19T04:19:00+00:00
Dow (DOW) Stock May Be 35% Undervalued As Cash Flow Recovers Yahoo Finance
reddit · mention · 0.85
NEVER KYS PART 2 — We are almost even with QQQ since I downloaded Robinhood❤️
2026-09-18T20:40:09+00:00
A few months ago I posted that after SIX YEARS (January 20, 2020) I finally was breaking even with my brokerage gambling account. GOOD NEWS, I might finally match what the nasdaq has done in the same timeframe!!! So inspiring!!! Could I have done better just holding onto the NVDA I sold in 2019? Yes! Could I have done better just holding QQQ since downloading robinhood? Yes! Would it have been more fun to just do that from the start? Also yes! Did I learn my lesson? WELL if the lesson is to keep trading Futures and leveraged ETFs instead of being boring…then yes!! Do I still randomly lose a couple thousand dollars on 0DTEs? That’s between me and my therapist (who I can now afford!) Almost all of the big wins are just from oil futures, which im currently Short on from 94.5 on the December contracts. submitted by /u/Noob_Noodles [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman
2026-09-18T10:29:29+00:00
submitted by /u/Disastrous-Group-977 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
The Ai slowdown does not mean capex slowdown. It's the opposite
2026-09-15T11:19:00+00:00
Guys, slowing down AI to build more safeguards around it means that you need MORE AI To audit the other AIs. If anything, this is an exponential increase in capex because one model working on hacking for the CIA (for example) will need other AI models to check that the job is being done properly and against the proper targets and then ai did not go rogue. Only an AI can check another AI, a human could never check and validate that fast. This means more computing power spent to check on main AIs. Nobody said Capex is slowing down, they are saying to slow down the release of new models that could potentially be used for nefarious purposes in order to build the guardrails. I believe all of this panic is baseless, POs are there, contracts are signed, already booked until 2028-2030. This is an arms race for dominance in this technology, the nuclear/space race did not stop in the 70's because of the oil shock, actually they started printing money and removed the gold standard to save the system (as usual). We are arguably nearing a huge QE event because of the liquidity drain that the Iran war will continue to aggravate. The future is EXTREMELY bullish and inflationary. Please correct me if I am wrong but I am not seeing this race slowing down, quite the opposite, China just said they are not slowing but accelerating, the USA already declared the AI to be a matter of national security in 2024 or earlier if memory serves me well. Nobody can stop this train. Lastly, debasement/devaluation are inevitable in the future so locking prices now for future delivery is smart as it offsets billions in future costs while revenues will proportionally grow nominally (after the 2008 oil crisis that provoked the great financial crisis, the dollar dropped to 0.6 against the euro, this means international revenue skyrocketed nominally). I also believe the FED will hold because the 10yrs at 5% already means that financial conditions are tightening. Debate me. submitted by /u/Conscious-Jicama2274 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
投资TALK君Who would believe that AI training needs to slow down?
2026-09-14T14:30:38+00:00
Dario hopes the regulators will act the way they do. Thus, 1. it prevents Chinese open-source models from taking over their implementation. Even banning US companies from using Chinese open-source models (if the open-source models cannot meet third-party evaluation requirements?). Undoubtedly, he will consolidate his position and create a three- or four-way monopoly. I don't think he will succeed. As for slowing down training or development, who would believe that? submitted by /u/Independent_Ad_962 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
AI slowdown: what does it mean?
2026-09-14T07:00:19+00:00
Dw this wont be a long AI post where you need to scroll past 90% of it with long winded paragraphs. Why did this happen now? To act on what the “whistleblowers” said. One was a clear marketing stunt btw as he plugged his new company where we will work on AI safety. That aside this is all public image. Does it matter? Yes and no. Billions are invested and they haven’t had their IPO to dump on us so they still need the hype of when the banks, PE, … need to cash out. Yes but muh stonks are down! Yes exactly because everyone is overreacting. You probably saw this as bad news sector wide as well. Ps oil prices don’t hell. Data centers, phones, computers, … are all still being built so memory play is still intact. Energy is still intact. Most thesises are still intact as they’re adjacent and not into openai or claude directly as they’re not on the market. Tl;dr use the fearmongering to buy cheaper. It might last longer than one day, but it’s not going to matter for long. Especially with this administration. submitted by /u/Age_Specialist [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Anthropic boss Dario Amodei calls for AI development to slow down
2026-09-12T16:49:39+00:00
Sam Altman said it two days ago. Now Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: “We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models.” If OpenAI, Anthropic and eventually other frontier labs start putting more emphasis on safety, evaluation and controlled deployment , does the AI trade actually change rather than end? Because the bottleneck could shift. Instead of endlessly increasing training compute, we could see relatively more spending go toward: Inference AI networking Security / evaluation Enterprise deployment(AI software) And there’s an interesting second-order effect here. If frontier model progress slows even somewhat, does that hurt the companies selling the picks and shovels for ever-larger training runs? submitted by /u/GetDeepSignal [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Dow Inc. (DOW) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why - Yahoo Finance
2026-09-11T22:15:03+00:00
Dow Inc. (DOW) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why Yahoo Finance
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Broadcom's stock drops 5% as weak guidance overshadows earnings beat
2026-09-02T20:36:36+00:00
submitted by /u/Force_Hammer [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
I built an agent that buys whatever this sub is talking about. It's down 19.2%.
2026-09-01T19:36:48+00:00
I built an agent that buys whatever this sub is most talking about after the close. It is down 19.2% on the month. Posting the whole experiment anyway, because the thing that lost is more interesting than the things that won. Setup: 17 autonomous agents on a live account, up 15.2% on roughly $3,000, each with its own capital slice and its own strategy. No coordination between them, no human approving trades. 345 real fills on the equity side over the month. The WSB agent It spreads a token amount across the most discussed tickers here after the close. In August it bought Moderna at $176. Next session: $133. Down 24% overnight, and that single hold is essentially the entire month's drawdown for that agent. It's a $10 position because I expected roughly this. The useful part is that the agent did its job perfectly. It read the signal, sized correctly, executed on time. The signal was just worthless. Agent quality and signal quality are completely separate problems and a good agent on a bad signal loses money very efficiently. I keep it running as a control. If my other agents can't beat the one deliberately following this sub, I've learned something important about the other agents. What actually worked Chip and AI-infrastructure basket, biggest allocation at $500, reweighted weekly on 60-day momentum. Currently NVDA, DELL, ANET. Up 22.9% for the month. Nothing clever in the construction, it just had the right universe in the right month. It also trimmed MU and SMCI before they gave back gains, which is easy to praise in hindsight. The earnings agent, and the trade I'm most impressed by It reads news and setup quality ahead of scheduled earnings, takes the trade only on favorable setups, and sits in the S&P 500 otherwise. On Aug 26 it sold VOO, bought NVDA near $210, held about a day, sold at $227 and went straight back to the index. Roughly 8% on a sub-24-hour hold. Crypto Rotator: +77.9% The mechanic is stupidly simple. Hold exactly one coin at a time, whichever of 10 liquid cryptos ranks highest on momentum, volume and volatility. Re-check daily, rotate when the ranking changes. Zero diversification, on purpose. It only moved four times all month: Held LINK, sold Jul 30 at $8.46 (bought at $8.37). Basically flat, +1.1% Into ADA at $0.1704, out Aug 8 at $0.199. +16.8% Back into LINK at $8.30, out Aug 18 at $9.50. +12.3% Into ETH at $1,912, out Aug 22 at $2,423. +26.7% in four days Into SOL at $93.87, still holding Four completed rotations, four winners. The ETH leg is what actually made the month. The headline-reaction agent, and a question It parses political posts and buys the large caps being praised. Worked example: news lands 2:31 PM ET that Micron announced a $10B US research lab investment. The agent is filled in MU at $914.86 by 2:47 PM, sixteen minutes later. MU printed $936.81 the next morning, about +2.4%. So here's what I can't decide. For an attention-driven signal, should the exit be time-based rather than signal-based? The whole premise is that a shout-out is an attention spike with no fundamental content. If that's true the position has a half-life measured in hours and the agent should sell into the next open mechanically. But then it has to be right about the fade horizon instead, and "exactly one session" is an arbitrary number with nothing behind it. The earnings agent above is already doing the time-based version and it worked. I don't know if that's the right default or just the one that happened to work once. Caveats Real broker fills with real timestamps. Not a backtest, not paper trading. One month, 17 agents, one account. Nothing here is statistically significant and I'm not pretending otherwise. The two worst percentages sit on the two smallest allocations, which is a sizing artifact and not risk management working. submitted by /u/randbobaccount [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 1.00
DOW 50k? No, DOW 100k!
2026-08-22T18:52:33+00:00
Finally saw one of these funny WSB plates in the wild today walking to Wendy's. Wonder if the owner frequents here submitted by /u/EscapeWendys [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Down 8500 Canadian bucks on UCU shares
2026-08-21T01:35:46+00:00
submitted by /u/BullyMog [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Anyone know if the stock market will go up or down in the near future?
2026-08-18T14:49:24+00:00
Basically title. Just want to know if it'll go up or down, not too much to ask for imo. submitted by /u/Different-Party-b00b [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
rates go down soon
2026-08-18T05:18:58+00:00
Scott Bessent basically has the whole US government's debt strategy leaning on one bet: rates go down soon been funding the government mostly with short term bills instead of locking in 30 year bonds right now. that only makes sense if you think long term rates are about to drop, otherwise why not just lock in and stop worrying about it problem is rates aren't dropping. they're going up. 30 year auction this week priced at 5.22%, highest since 2001. 10 year went off at highest yield since 2007. market is charging way more than usual and that whole yen intervention thing a few weeks back (the "we did it for Japan" thing) wasn't really about Japan. it was about keeping Japan from having to sell off a trillion dollars of US treasuries to defend their currency, bc that selling would push US rates even higher and blow up Bessent's bet even more so it's not "is Bessent right that rates fall" in a vacuum, it's the government's entire funding strategy quietly betting on it, and right now the market is not agreeing with him either he's early and this ages well, or the US just took a pretty expensive gamble with the national debt So, I am also betting on rates go down. submitted by /u/GrowthMLR [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Harvard endowment discloses $2.2 billion SpaceX stake
2026-08-17T13:06:35+00:00
submitted by /u/SharkSapphire [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
South Korean retail traders down bad
2026-08-12T21:10:31+00:00
You must now prove to the South Korean gov't that you're not a regard to be allowed access to single-stock leveraged ETFs by passing a 5-day (5 hour) simulated trading test 🤣 submitted by /u/CMTTrader [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Google’s AI wonder boy steps down to become a chair
2026-08-10T20:45:23+00:00
submitted by /u/SorryLifeguard7 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Two years of emotions, ups and downs, all for table scraps
2026-08-10T15:07:56+00:00
Not really sure if this is even worth it in context of hours of sleep and my time lost following these options contacts and being stressed out. Biggest gains are in May '24 from SNOW calls at earnings, then in early '25 from QQQ poots and FDs and then this fat cluster when I got sucked back into the gambling. Hormuz ups and downs. Live to fight another day. Let's ride submitted by /u/BlatantPlatitude [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Semis are still in a downtrend
2026-08-05T19:20:05+00:00
I'm not buying into the correction being over until semis break out of this pattern submitted by /u/michaeldavidmanning [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Down the Korean Market rabbit hole
2026-08-05T15:47:14+00:00
After the last few days of extreme volatility on Korean market, and unrelated research of UCITS ETF-s I've done - I'm left confused. Since the UCITS ETF-s are capped 30/18 meaning 30% maximum concentration in the top performing stock and 18% maximum concentration in all other stocks inside the fund. Currently the market share of Samsung is about 26% and SK Hynix 21% of the Korean index. Does that mean then when let's say as example FLXK Franklin UCITS ETF rebalance mid-september they will be forced to sell 3% of SK Hynix no matter what? And that's just one fund of one provider. When you apply that to all ETFs tracking Korea that's a huge selling pressure, just because regulations. submitted by /u/EuroPoor-NoodleLover [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Duality of Man (up 48% for the week, down 48% for the month)
2026-08-05T05:40:17+00:00
I got cooked last month because I had big positions in MU, SNDK, and some other AI plays using margin. I was leveraged 3x and kept selling positions slowly hoping that things would bounce, and I just got wrecked. I’m making my money back though with the shares I have left and some lucky option plays submitted by /u/weird-fishz [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
AMD's revenue climbs 50% and data center sales doubled, but the stock is down
2026-08-04T21:05:11+00:00
submitted by /u/Force_Hammer [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
SpaceX’s first public earning’s report looks rough….this will inevitably drag all space stocks down tomorrow
2026-08-04T20:41:15+00:00
submitted by /u/Successful_Cod4379 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
🌾wheat production is down
2026-08-04T05:33:42+00:00
wheat crop wasn't great this year and you can expect prices to rise starting next month. down 7 million bushels from june and the shortage we are seeing now is similar to the 2022 bad crop / shortage. idk i'm gonna yolo into a few 1/15/27 $24 & $25 calls submitted by /u/laurentiisaint [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
RKLB down 35% in a month on zero bad news, generational buying opportunity or are we the exit liquidity?
2026-08-01T14:10:23+00:00
So let me get this straight. RKLB rips 46% in the first half of the year, everyone in here is posting rocket emojis and calling it the next SpaceX, and then July shows up and deletes half the stock in a month. And the best part? Nothing happened. No failed launch. No dilution. No guidance cut. The company is sitting on a $2.2B backlog, just landed another $266M contract, keeps yeeting things into orbit on schedule, and the stock still traded like the factory exploded. It just got dragged down with the rest of the tape because apparently in 2026 nothing matters. So talk to me. What's your move? submitted by /u/Original-Reporter101 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Martin Shkreli Breaks Down the Collapse of Situational Awareness
2026-07-31T17:10:54+00:00
An interesting discussion on the hedge fund industry eating their own. Martin Shkreli Breaks Down the Collapse of Situational Awareness https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJdgh9eEZvw submitted by /u/jbcbos [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Is AI hype cooling down? I built a data-driven dashboard
2026-07-29T07:12:49+00:00
Over the past few months, I've seen more people claim that AI hype is fading or that we're entering another AI winter. I wanted to see if the underlying data supports that narrative. I put together a dashboard that tracks several indicators that are difficult to fake: Hyperscaler AI/data center capital expenditures GPU deployments Data center construction Power demand and electricity generation Model usage and inference economics AI revenue and adoption metrics If there are additional datasets you think should be included (or if you spot something misleading), I'd love feedback. Check it out here: https://laurentiugabriel.github.io/is-ai-hype-cooling-down/ submitted by /u/East_Fruit8305 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Cooking or copium? TSLA Calls (After earnings) Averaged down from 19.55 to 11.24
2026-07-24T23:55:39+00:00
Didn’t touch TSLA before earnings. Started buying after earnings dump because I thought the correction was just too big to not try and take advantage of any volatility on coming days, but kept falling hard. My initial average was $19.55, and as the premium kept getting crushed I averaged down to $11.24. Currently holding 36x 8/28 $335C. I know averaging down on options is usually considered financial Darwinism, but here I am. Is this a reasonable volatility play, or am I just manufacturing a huge loss? submitted by /u/flashandarrow2001 [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Dow Inc. (DOW) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance
2026-07-23T11:15:03+00:00
Dow Inc. (DOW) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates Yahoo Finance
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Stock always goes down?
2026-07-22T20:30:10+00:00
submitted by /u/tupacliv3s [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Bers while trying to convince people to buy puts after a ~35% semi drawdown:
2026-07-21T09:23:29+00:00
🤦♂️ submitted by /u/AgitatedJump8459 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
10x returns on my SPXC puts. Sorry I let you all down and didnt 20x like I promised.
2026-07-17T23:22:06+00:00
I wanted a 20x. I was diamond handed af. Didnt take enough screenshots along the way. Went from 0k to like 350k back down to 100k and now im at 500k+. Deleted the app. See you all monday once I reinstall. submitted by /u/WhoRuleTheWorld [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
I doubled down on everything. Good luck.
2026-07-17T21:21:37+00:00
I doubled down on everything. Yes. Everything. Yes...even that one. The next two weeks will be tough for most of you. Don't say I didn't tell you. submitted by /u/Valkorian09 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Retail and Wall Street are underwater on SpaceX — but not going down without a fight
2026-07-17T20:52:26+00:00
With short interest sitting at nearly 30% of the public float and retail refusing to sell, this is turning into an absolute battleground. The premium on these options must be insane right now. submitted by /u/fmcortez [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Expecting a 10% Crash in Silver!! Write down your views boys
2026-07-16T18:52:04+00:00
Expecting a hard selloff in silver due to its technical strength breakdown of support submitted by /u/Crafty_Resort644 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Doubled down. $300,000 USD on $NFLX 🎲
2026-07-16T16:16:13+00:00
I’ve decided to double down on my original position going into NFLX’s earnings. If you want the DD and to see the original position check my previous YOLO post: here… But TLDR: I made the decision to invest in Netflix while on the comedown of some LSD that was gifted to me from a hot femboy. While I was tripping I also realized fear is just an illusion… it’s a fake cognitive emotion designed by the poor and force fed to us by society from birth. I skimmed some gains off the MSFT position in the previous YOLO to fund this double down, but I'm still holding $280k in MSFT calls as well. I highly recommend you inverse me. I’ve never actually paid for Netflix or any streaming subscriptions in my life... but despite me not doing so, I’m sure plenty of you regards happily fork over your Wendy’s pay checks to fund a lifestyle filled with subscriptions, which is exactly why I'm so confident in this insider trade “investment”. A message for all the goy here still paying for streaming services instead of hosting your own Plex or Jellyfin server on a Linux/Docker stack: please don't ever learn how to self host pirated content… keep being good little consumers and paying monthly fees. God bless America and Godspeed. submitted by /u/yatv [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Looks like a downward trend
2026-07-15T22:21:59+00:00
This is what my current holdings look like. It’s 60% US ETFs, 30% gold and 10% bonds. I expect this downward trend to continue till the mid term elections in November, before rebounding. Interested to see what other people think. submitted by /u/boundary-tail [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Down 45% on SOUN-U (SoundHound AI units) — hold, average down, or cut losses?
2026-07-15T17:40:17+00:00
Bought in at an average cost of $16.65, now at $6.52. Position is down about 45% unrealized, roughly a $12.4K loss on paper. Current market value is around $15.2K of the original $27.6K invested. I still believe in the long-term AI voice/conversational tech space, but I’m second-guessing whether I’m anchoring on my average cost rather than looking at this objectively. A few things I’m weighing: • Averaging down vs. treating this as a sunk cost • Setting a hard stop-loss vs. just riding it out • How much of SOUN’s recent decline is company-specific vs. broader AI-stock sentiment submitted by /u/capetienne [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Down 200k on SpaceX, -35.52% on my Roth IRA for 112k, another 80k loss via options in my regular trading account
2026-07-14T23:24:55+00:00
https://preview.redd.it/212zzlg54adh1.png?width=927&format=png&auto=webp&s=acfe80c9a8fab0398d5186790d23bc61030c0516 https://preview.redd.it/5n2fi6ib4adh1.png?width=971&format=png&auto=webp&s=f52372e484668e71de15f9ede770bafdb3779e2d So my Roth IRA is down 25%, I went and made a few options trades in Robinhood that also went the other way. The first was a 150/160 call I placed a couple weeks ago, that current value is in the second screenshot (down 50k). I placed another 135/145 trade today which is down 30k. https://preview.redd.it/7xz7ajgg4adh1.png?width=933&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f36199211b75b8e52850757b7f0c0c9ede88dce submitted by /u/smellyfingernail [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB- only one notch above junk level
2026-07-14T19:22:56+00:00
submitted by /u/GibonFrog [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Only one notch above junk level: S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB-
2026-07-14T18:00:10+00:00
submitted by /u/botulidze [link] [comments]
reddit · comparison · 0.85
Hands down, MSFT is the worst fucking investment I have ever owned
2026-07-09T11:20:20+00:00
https://preview.redd.it/pmh5p1j0s6ch1.png?width=687&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ed262d1ff5e32070f0d21a70ebc1cee9650314f https://preview.redd.it/ndq3tal3s6ch1.png?width=1119&format=png&auto=webp&s=76d03a13f1e8c520fb4778872ad9f9cb3e4d4027 https://preview.redd.it/kjlzkmilt6ch1.png?width=1072&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fee82b3e15e03c91ae29a1a882205f36c6ea2e6 Hands down, I have never owned a bigger piece of shit than MSFT. Been bagholding this trash for over 7 months already. I don't know how people aren't losing their minds over this stock, seriously, I took out some margin to trade MU and made decent gains, so it offsets some of my losses. But not everyone has done that I just took more risk then I should have. I think its stupid people are comparing it to Google last year, google was always within 10% from its ATH even if it was stagnant for a while. I've also owned the other 5 of the mag 7 including AMZN even when everyone was bashing it over its 5 year return being lower than that of the S&P. But at least AMZN always recovered within 2 months of a minor crash. NVDA made ATH a month ago, AAPL hitting ATHs every week. Even META after that eps sell off last Q3, i bought the dip aggresively and made huge returns this year after Q1 earnings report (it only took it 4 months to rebound) (so even if im down a little, ive made some money of it). Those pos analysts need to fucking downgrade this pos and stop misleading people, seriously. There is no way in hell this stock deserves anything more than 450 a year from now. Fuck you MSFT, and yes I see you're red this morning not surprised with you being red 90% of the time submitted by /u/Funny-Sprinkles-5674 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Down $143K from the peak on NBIS. Adding on the way down. Regarded or early?
2026-07-08T00:41:20+00:00
Alright degenerates, let's talk about my favorite money incinerator, $NBIS. The damage: 1,370 shares. Down $24K today alone. Down $143K since the June 22 top. Watched a third of my gains evaporate in two weeks because Zuck sneezed. Still up 387% on the position because I bought this thing in the $30s and apparently have a medical inability to take profit. Why we're bleeding: Bloomberg dropped a report July 1 that Meta wants to sell its excess compute ("Meta Compute"). Market decided Nebius's biggest customer is now its biggest competitor and the whole neocloud sector got sent to the shadow realm. NBIS and CRWV both nuked. Why I'm not selling and actually think this rips: Meta literally signed a deal worth up to $27B with Nebius in MARCH. $12B dedicated capacity, $15B optional. You don't hand your "competitor" $27 billion. Meta reselling spare GPUs is not Meta becoming AWS. The company is drowning in demand. Contracted power went from ~1GW last August to 3.5GW+ now, targeting 4GW. 1.2GW site locked in Pennsylvania. New data centers in the UK, Finland, and France. Daddy Jensen put $2B of Nvidia money in. The fundamentals did not change. A headline changed. Here's the fun part: short interest is around 24% of float. Almost a quarter of this stock is sold short after a 35% drawdown. Q2 earnings land inside the next few weeks. You know what happens when a 24% shorted stock beats earnings. You've all seen this movie. It joined the Nasdaq-100 in June, so index funds are forced buyers now. Aschenbrenner's AI fund owns 5.6% of the company. And before you tell me $300 is copium: this exact ticker went $200 to $300 in five weeks in May and June. No squeeze fuel, no catalyst. It just did it. Now it's back at $195 with 24% SI and an earnings print loading. My prediction: shorts press it to the $180s, shake out the paper hands, then it turns on a dime and we're back above $300 by end of August. If I'm wrong, screenshot this and roast me. If I'm right, I'm buying a spoiler for the 911 with the gains. Positions: 1,370 shares NBIS, no options because I'm not THAT regarded. Not financial advice. I eat crayons. submitted by /u/dylanavocado [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Down 46% from the highs. JPMorgan just called it a rare valuation opportunity.
2026-07-07T23:39:24+00:00
Chipotle's been in a genuinely rough stretch, ngl. Traffic declined for four straight quarters through the end of 2025, first annual same-store sales drop since 2016. Management's explanation was basically a broad consumer pullback hitting every income group, with lower-income diners cutting back hardest. Stock's down about 46% from its highs while the S&P was up double digits over that same stretch. Feels pretty on-theme for this sub honestly, another data point on how much pressure regular spending is under right now. Q1 2026 was the first real sign of a turn though. Revenue grew ~7.4% to about $3.09B, beat estimates, and transaction counts went positive for the first time in a year. Digital sales are now close to 39% of total sales, helped along by new menu stuff like Chicken Al Pastor and higher-protein options aimed at winning back people who'd drifted off. Management's deliberately not discounting to chase traffic back either. They're protecting the brand's pricing position instead, even though that means margins stay squeezed while beef costs and tariffs work against them. In June JPMorgan upgraded it to overweight, calling the ~43% decline since early 2025 a rare valuation opportunity. Their argument: the current multiple now reflects a realistic growth profile instead of the premium Chipotle used to command. Still trades at a forward P/E in the high 20s though, above the restaurant industry average. So not a screaming bargain by any classic value metric. More like a high-quality brand trading at a discount to its own history, not an obviously cheap stock. They're still planning to open 350-370 new restaurants in 2026 too, expansion continuing even through the softer traffic environment. That alone drives some revenue growth whether or not comps fully recover. Real risk here: 2026 guidance calls for flat same-store sales. Management itself isn't promising a fast turnaround. This is a bet that a strong brand recovers from a rough couple years, not a bet that it already has. Chipotle is one of those where the quality of the business was never really the question, just what price you're paying for the rough patch. Anyone here buying this pullback, or waiting to see if comps actually turn positive first? submitted by /u/Efficient_Ad5893 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Rivian shares fall after public offering plan overshadows upbeat revenue forecast
2026-07-06T22:37:12+00:00
submitted by /u/Several_Print4633 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
$AVAV — Thing That Actually Shoots Down Other Things
2026-07-06T00:55:38+00:00
I am not a financial advisor. I am a retard for a living with 32k in 2X leveraged AVAV this bull run still has legs. AVAV just posted Q4 FY26 revenue of $641.6M, up 133% YoY, crushing the $556-559M consensus, with adjusted EPS of $1.84 vs. $1.47 expected. Stock ripped ~35% in three trading days on the print. Then, two days later, it landed a $500M firm fixed price Army contract for the Titan RF counter UAS system running through June 2029. Also Short term is massive insider buying with investors Day around the corner on July 8 hoping they clean guidance and this thing gaps up again. This is the exact setup 2x leverage was invented for. Book-to-bill sits at 1.4x, meaning orders are outpacing revenue, backlog is building, not draining. BTIG flagged the Army IDIQ contract as a fresh catalyst, and Jefferies called the Titan award a strong signal for FY27 revenue visibility. Investor Day is July 8 in New York, where management is expected to lay out strategy post BlueHalo merger, which adds counter-UAS, SATCOM, and directed energy exposure areas the Pentagon is actively pouring money into. Consensus sits around $258-259 (Buy rating, ~35% implied upside from ~$191). Range is wide — Street lows near $166-235, highs stretching to $361-450 depending on the shop. Piper Sandler’s at $248 Overweight; Jefferies just trimmed to $229 from $305 post-print (valuation catch-up, not a thesis change); Canaccord’s at $280. submitted by /u/Interesting_Dingo194 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.75
Tech stocks to the moon or down the hell?
2026-07-05T20:43:11+00:00
I’ve been tracking a clear "seesaw" pattern over the last month between AI hardware/memory stocks and enterprise software. It seems like every time big money panics and dumps chip makers on a Friday due to overcapacity fears, they immediately rotate that exact cash into software stocks to protect their positions over the weekend. Last Friday was weird because Wall Street was closed for the US holiday. Asian and European buyers stepped in, pushing Micron up to hold around €897 (touching €902) and Nvidia to around €171. Volume was super low. Now that US big money is coming back on Monday, do you think they will follow Asia’s lead and buy the dip, or will they trigger the 1-month rotation pattern again at the 15:30 CET opening bell and dump hardware for software?What are your moves for tomorrow? Are you watching key Euro floors like €165.96 on NVDA or €852.20 on MU? submitted by /u/Ok_Set329 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Closing on a house at the end of month. Full margin ~$90,000 down payment on AVAV pre-earnings, had to liquidate a 1k loss, then..
2026-07-02T19:24:39+00:00
submitted by /u/Large_banana_hammock [link] [comments]