reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
so does the market not give a shit about japan anymore?
2026-05-22T03:05:22+00:00
The Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate to 1.0% in June, nearly two-thirds of economists said in a Reuters poll, as it presses ahead with efforts to normalise monetary policy amid rising inflation concerns from the war in Iran. The policy rate was held steady at 0.75% last month to assess repercussions from the conflict but three of the BOJ's nine board members dissented and called for a hike to 1.00%, signalling growing alarm over inflationary pressures from the war-driven energy shock. BOJ board member Kazuyuki Masu, who voted to keep rates steady in April, said on Thursday the bank should raise interest rates as soon as possible if there are no clear signs of an economic slowdown, suggesting he could join dissenters in backing a rate hike next month. In the May 7-14 poll, 65% of economists, 40 of 62, forecast the policy rate would rise to 1.0% by end-June, similar to an April survey . All but one of 62 respondents expected a hike by end-September. Median forecasts showed the BOJ raising rates to 1.25% in the fourth quarter and to 1.50% in the third quarter next year, the same as last month's poll. submitted by /u/AnaIyze [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Reflecting On Mixed or Offshore Upstream E&P Stocks’ Q1 Earnings: APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) - Yahoo Finance
2026-05-17T21:16:55+00:00
Reflecting On Mixed or Offshore Upstream E&P Stocks’ Q1 Earnings: APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) Yahoo Finance
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Warum starten die Japan Aktien heute so stark durch?
2026-05-15T09:37:34+00:00
Ist der Orange versehentlich in Japan statt China gelandet und hat es nicht bemerkt? submitted by /u/Teilzeitschwurbler [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
PZZA-Papa Johns Buyout
2026-05-14T21:10:24+00:00
Investment firm Irth Capital is working with Papa John's International's (PZZA.O), opens new tab largest U.S. franchisee, who controls around 10% of the pizza chain's domestic restaurants, to take the company private, three sources told Reuters. submitted by /u/stockmarkettrader [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.75
Papa Papperger kauft für halbe Mio RHM
2026-05-07T11:26:54+00:00
Papperger hat RHM-Aktien im Wert von über 500.000 EUR so eben nachgekauft. Quelle: Rheinmetall AG Rheinmetall AG: Armin Theodor Papperger, buy https://www.eqs-news.com/news/directors-dealings/rheinmetall-ag-armin-theodor-papperger-buy/02fbe6cd-59ee-4b7a-9a42-4556cf4dc0b4_en In den letzten Jahren hat er immer zum richtigen Zeitpunkt nachgelegt, bevor die Aktie einen starken Lauf hatte. Da kann man sich praktisch blind drauf verlassen. submitted by /u/Strange_Detective500 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.85
Spirit Airlines Prepares to Shut Down as Rescue Deal Falls Apart
2026-05-01T15:16:01+00:00
Spirit Airlines preparing to shut down after the deal with the Trump admin has fallen apart. Spirit’s bondholders were not on board with the plan. Rip FLYYQ submitted by /u/Herbrax212 [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Keeping with current trends, the bank of Japan intervenes in the Yen market even with stocks at all time highs. Good for more market pump
2026-04-30T14:46:09+00:00
Bank of Japan decided to prop up the Yen today. With the Nikkei and the US markets at all time highs. The move pushed the USD down, which also pushed crude oil down. USD and crude were high as a natural result of current events. It's natural price discovery at work and the BOJ put an end to it with forced intervention. They didn't even choose to pump the markets while they were weak. We're literally at the highs. The slightest sign of stress and they have to jump in to keep the market rallies going. The market pumps are just fueled by constant government intervention. And they respond faster and faster. It makes it impossible to trust US and global markets because true price discovery is gone. Any time there's a remote sign of weakness, governments and banks intervene and induce a rally. Even while markets are in the most obvious bubble of the last 2 decades. And in the meantime, inflation is at 3-4 year highs across CPI, PPI, and PCE with crude at multi decade highs. Personal savings and consumption are at multi-year lows, suggesting extreme consumer weakness. But none of that matters. The market continues to be fueled by intervention and AI hopes, which haven't and will not translate to healthier consumer earnings/spending and broader markets earnings beyond chip manufacturing companies for a long time. submitted by /u/BGID_to_the_moon [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Papa Powell isn't going anywhere, baby
2026-04-29T20:22:03+00:00
“The things that have happened really in the last three months have, I think, left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long,” Powell said. Long live Papa Powell! submitted by /u/momreview420 [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.75
AI data center/HPC infrastructure Stocks: By contracted MW capacity, revenue & market performance
2026-04-28T09:05:12+00:00
NO AI SLOP ! The data below is accurate, and I did my own research via Google Finance. Looks like the stocks were very hot last year, but it's cooling down a little, y'all still holding or? Ticker Company Name Market Cap YTD Performance 1-Year Performance APLD Applied Digital $9.62B +19,78% +614,86% CORZ Core Scientific $6.66B +31,69% +156,07% WULF TeraWulf $10.50B +68,21% +609,60% CIFR Cipher Mining $7.37B +12,10% +493,46% HUT Hut 8 Corp $8.52B +47,67% +477,50% IREN IREN (Iris Energy) $19.30B +13,26% +656,81% RIOT Riot Platforms $6.93B +29,10% +139,58% submitted by /u/LarryBlink [link] [comments]
reddit · mention · 0.75
AI data center/HPC infrastructure Stocks: By contracted MW capacity, revenue & market performance
2026-04-28T09:02:22+00:00
NO AI SLOP ! The data below is accurate, and I did my own research via Google Finance. Looks like the stocks were very hot last year, but it's cooling down a little, y'all still holding or? Ticker Company Name Market Cap YTD Performance 1-Year Performance APLD Applied Digital $9.62B +19,78% +614,86% CORZ Core Scientific $6.66B +31,69% +156,07% WULF TeraWulf $10.50B +68,21% +609,60% CIFR Cipher Mining $7.37B +12,10% +493,46% HUT Hut 8 Corp $8.52B +47,67% +477,50% IREN IREN (Iris Energy) $19.30B +13,26% +656,81% RIOT Riot Platforms $6.93B +29,10% +139,58% submitted by /u/LarryBlink [link] [comments]
news · mention · 1.00
APA and Dow Inc. Stocks Fall Sharply as the Strait of Hormuz Reopens. Here’s Why. - Barron's
2026-04-17T14:08:00+00:00
APA and Dow Inc. Stocks Fall Sharply as the Strait of Hormuz Reopens. Here’s Why. Barron's
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Q4 Earnings Outperformers: APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) And The Rest Of The Mixed or Offshore Upstream E&P Stocks - StockStory
2026-04-15T10:41:49+00:00
Q4 Earnings Outperformers: APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) And The Rest Of The Mixed or Offshore Upstream E&P Stocks StockStory
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Japanese investments when EU bans US companies - fujitsu and others
2026-04-11T12:39:06+00:00
Hello, among all the US company analysis I read here there is not much talk about how other countries can find their place in areas like cloud, AI and network. This week I read some information that might be interesting for everyone to see and prove to be usefull for your investment strategies. If we talk about cloud then amazon, microsoft and google will be first mentions, but EU has been introducing policies that ban US tech in some sectors and are treated as risk. European defense ministries are turning to OVHcloud instead of Amazon, Microsoft, or Google for sensitive military systems. Thats from article from this month. How can EU achieve the sovereignity they are aiming for was my question, and since I look at japanese companies for past few months, I do know about existence of fujitsu monaka, rapidus, nec, ntt and some other ones- we do see that japan aiming towards their own sovereignity and US independence we see japan compared to EU has a bit more solutions to offer. If EU wants less USA exposure i kept asking why not go to japan? and after asking it for many times xD I finaly found some answers: in february 2026 japans METI cosigned joint statement on economic cooperation with finland and sweden. This qualifies japanese technology as strategic bilateral cooperation bypassing the EU non EEA exlusion rules for defense and sovereign procurement. estabilishes SAFE program eligibility for Japanese companies via agreement 35% nonEEA limit applies. that delegation included around 80 registered companies, where technology leaders met EU counterparts. Confirmed pairing would be for example in cloud Fujitsu EU partner - Scalewa, OVHcloud so if doubting OVHcloud is easy then in combination with fujitsu the EU sovereignity does seem like reasonable goal. on 1st april fujitsu Digital sovereignity advisory launched for eu enterprises Kasashima sovereign AI server manufacuring confirmed for europe on 8th april now today METI approves 631.5Byen for Rapidus and names Fujitsu as anchor customer - derisking monaka program 11 april NEDO specificaly backs Fujitsu + IBM japan semiconductor design I will highlight this - The Scaleway MoU (November 2025) and OVHcloud defense unit (April 9, 2026) are the two EU deployment endpoints for Fujitsu's physical server output. So people who are invested in cloud do you think Fujitsu is good ivnestment now? it is in a relative "dip" right now with good entry point. i myself bought yesterday small amount limited by the budget i own and hold 30 shares. here are some other partnerships : toshiba,NTT - sshcommunications, xiphera synspective,axelspace -ICEYE Mitsubishi electric- SAAB, Hensoldt NEC- Indra, Leonardo, Nokia if there are partnerships you find interesting would be interesting to see your arguments. what do you think about investing into sovereign solutions? are there partnerships betweenEU and japan you find more interesting? I think aftrer fujitsu NEC is one worth looking at 100% submitted by /u/BeginningEar8070 [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: Carnival, APA, Delta, Sandisk, LyondellBasell, Nvidia, RPM, and More - Barron's
2026-04-08T14:08:00+00:00
These Stocks Are Today’s Movers: Carnival, APA, Delta, Sandisk, LyondellBasell, Nvidia, RPM, and More Barron's
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Rate Cut: Can APA Corporation disrupt its industry - Portfolio Performance Report & Low Drawdown Momentum Ideas - baoquankhu1.vn
2026-03-31T21:50:56+00:00
Rate Cut: Can APA Corporation disrupt its industry - Portfolio Performance Report & Low Drawdown Momentum Ideas baoquankhu1.vn
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services LLC Increases Stock Position in APA Corporation $APA - MarketBeat
2026-03-31T11:25:36+00:00
Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services LLC Increases Stock Position in APA Corporation $APA MarketBeat
news · primary_subject · 1.00
APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) Short Interest Update - MarketBeat
2026-03-31T10:31:26+00:00
APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) Short Interest Update MarketBeat
news · primary_subject · 1.00
APA Corporation $APA Shares Bought by SG Americas Securities LLC - MarketBeat
2026-03-31T09:01:04+00:00
APA Corporation $APA Shares Bought by SG Americas Securities LLC MarketBeat
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Analyst Upgrade: Can APA Corporation beat the S P 500 - 2026 Market Mood & Reliable Intraday Trade Plans - baoquankhu1.vn
2026-03-31T04:44:44+00:00
Analyst Upgrade: Can APA Corporation beat the S P 500 - 2026 Market Mood & Reliable Intraday Trade Plans baoquankhu1.vn
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Activity Recap: Whats next for APA Corporation stock - 2026 Opening Moves & Daily Profit Focused Stock Screening - baoquankhu1.vn
2026-03-30T23:27:45+00:00
Activity Recap: Whats next for APA Corporation stock - 2026 Opening Moves & Daily Profit Focused Stock Screening baoquankhu1.vn
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
A Lalapalooza - The Iran War Will Cause an Economic Collapse in the US
2026-03-30T19:28:46+00:00
First my claim: Inflation from the Iran war is going to cause a financial crisis an order of magnitude larger than the 2008 housing crash. Inflation will topple private credit, as private equity loan defaults rise at the same time it’s hitting the CRE loan wall. That will create selling pressure that will spill into the stock market and the crypto market, significantly damaging household wealth and freezing up the equity market, while at the same time AI companies need money from the equity markets to make good on the spending commitments that are growing the US economy. Unemployment will hit over 10% and we will see negative GDP growth. Position: Long USO How do I know? Charlie Munger famously spoke of the concept of a lalapalooza. He would say that whenever there is an extraordinary outcome, it is rarely due to only one cause. There is almost always a confluence of factors causing any major event. He gave the examples of the Moonies, a cult, and how they would use a confluence of methods to take a normal everyday person and convert them into a brainwashed fanatic over the course of a weekend. Right now there is a lalapalooza going on in this country. We are facing a significant threat of inflation, during a time where GDP growth is hinged on a single industry and there is an unknown amount of leverage in the system. This lalapalooza has 5 factors that I know of: AI - right now the GDP growth of the US is dependent on AI. In Q2 2025, AI was 30% of GDP growth in the US. AI based GDP growth is significantly hampered by increases in construction costs (building data centers), and electricity cost (operating data centers). None of these AI companies are profitable, and they rely on investor money to make these investments. Open AI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (they own xAI) want to go public in the largest planned IPOs in US history, all competing for investment dollars they need to make good on the over $1T of spending commitments they and other AI companies have made. The federal reserve- the fed is coming off of a number of years with high inflation that is not quite tamed yet. They have already stalled rate cuts and don’t have the ammo to cut rates to stimulate spending, especially if there was an increasing in the inflation rate. Private credit - Private credit is the lending arm of private equity. They have over $2T of AUM and I couldn’t find a reliable figure for the amount of leverage they use. They have two issues. The first is commercial real estate. CRE maturities will reach over $1T In 2026 and over $1.2T in 2027. These were loans taken in the low rate environment around the pandemic and will be refinancing at significantly higher rates, while at the same time rents are under pressure in the space as vacancies in office space hold steady at over 14%. Private credit has about $500b invested in CRE loans. The second problem is private equity. Private equity is the borrower in 70% of private credit deals according to the IMF. These deals are already under pressure, as firms bought at high multiples in the Covid and post Covid years that have since retracted. For many investments the increase in rates we have seen over the past few years has already stressed their cash flows and these companies are increasingly defaulting on their loans. An increase in inflation would only further accelerate this already established trend. Crypto - the current cryptocurrency total market cap is over $2.3T and crypto is held by over 4% of US households. It’s not a trivial portion of household wealth. The amount of leverage in the crypto market is unknown. The IMF notes that as an unregulated asset class with significant OTC trading it’s impossible to accuracy estimate the amount of leverage in the market. However it does note that some platforms offer leverage as high as 125x. Iran - Iran is the spark that will ignite the above powder keg. Right now the strait of Hormuz is closed, and that puts a kink in the entire global economy that will cause inflation over the next 18-24 months (optimistically). The Iran war is going to drive significant inflation for two reasons: Petroleum- approximately 20% of the world oil and natural gas pass through the strait of Hormuz each year. Oil is a key input in gasoline, diesel fuel, corn, cows, and car rides. Natural gas is a key input put in electricity, semiconductors, and vehicle manufacturing. Not petroleum - In addition to oil and natural gas, the strait also supplies the world with non petroleum products such as aluminum, fertilizer, and helium. The Persian gulf is responsible for 8% of global aluminum trade, a key input in vehicles, power lines, and soda cans. It also sees about a third of the worlds traded urea, which is the most common nitrogen fertilizer and a key input in corn, cows, and car grade ethanol. (Fun fact: another large historic source of urea has been Ukraine. Hopefully there’s not a war there jamming up the supply). Finally, Qatar, a country in the Persian gulf, produces about a third of the world’s helium, a key input in semiconductor manufacturing which goes into every electronic, consumer and military grade. Why bigger than 2008? In 2008 China offset the negative impacts of the US housing implosion to some extent, continuing to grow GDP >6% throughout the recession experienced in the US. This helped stabilize countries like Australia that supply the manufacturing powerhouse. Now, the Chinese government has significantly more debt than in 2008 (I could make a whole second post about how Chinese debt is worse than it seems because of the CCP’s use of private companies with CCP ownership and local level borrowing). China is also currently suffering a housing collapse of its own. The US government was also in a better position to help in 2008. Inflation was below the feds 2% target, so they were able to cut rates and the US government had a lower debt to GDP ratio, so they were able to issue debt to help stimulate the consumer. Now both the government and the fed have far fewer options to intervene and make things better. Ok, that was a lot, but I felt it necessary to prove out what is such a large claim. This is not fortune telling. Much of this is already happening (see sources). So what can we do? Professionally, I am taking this insight and helping my clients navigate through and make deals that still make sense given current events. Personally, I am strengthening my personal balance sheet, avoiding borrowings and trying to limit my spending. I wish us all the best. Things will get bad, but we will be able to get through it together. Sources AI GDP growth https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth AI IPOs https://fortune.com/2026/03/20/spacex-openai-anthropic-could-be-3-of-the-biggest-venture-backed-ipos-of-all-time/ AI commitments https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-makes-five-year-plan-meet-1-trillion-spending-pledges-ft-reports-2025-10-15/ Fed stalling rate cuts https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026#:\~:text=January%2029%2C%202026,three%20rate%20cuts%20in%202025 . CRE maturity wall https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/cre-maturity-wall-reaches-950b-in-2024-peaks-in-2027 Negative net absorption of office space https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/august-2025-commercial-real-estate-market-insights Private credit involvement in CRE https://www.fortress.com/pws/knowledge/real-estate/whats-driving-the-growth-in-private-lending-to-commercial-real-estate#:\~:text=Adam%20Bobker:%20For%20many%20years,commercial%20banks%20in%20this%20country . https://www.pgim.com/content/dam/pgim/us/en/pgim-real-estate/active/documents/spotlights/pgim-real-estate-spotlight-2025-private-credit.pdf Private credit involvement in private equity https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf PE bankruptcy https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2024/1/us-private-equity-portfolio-company-bankruptcies-spiked-to-record-high-in-2023-80000182 https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/1/pe-backed-company-bankruptcies-in-us-reach-record-high-in-2024-87023731 https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/data-stories/us-corporate-default-risk-in-2025.html?utm\_source=chatgpt.com https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/private-credit-defaults-recoveries-2024-03-03-2025?utm\_source=chatgpt.com Crypto ownership https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/mar/cryptocurrency-ownership-us-households Crypto market cap https://www.coingecko.com/en/charts Crypto leverage https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/research/imf-and-g20/2024/imf-fsb-g20-crypto-asset-policy-implementation-roadmap.pdf Hormuz volume https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno#:\~:text=About%2020%25%20of%20the%20world's%20oil%20and,war%20has%20sent%20global%20fuel%20prices%20soaring . Not petroleum source https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/iran-war-impact-helium-urea-sulfur.html China in 2008 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45493147 China house crash still going on https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-new-home-prices-extend-decline-february-2026-03-16/ submitted by /u/ECom_Finance_Guy [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
A Lalapalooza - The Iran War Will Cause an Economic Collapse in the US
2026-03-30T13:45:41+00:00
First my claim: Inflation from the Iran war is going to cause a financial crisis an order of magnitude larger than the 2008 housing crash. Inflation will topple private credit, as private equity loan defaults rise at the same time it’s hitting the CRE loan wall. That will create selling pressure that will spill into the stock market and the crypto market, significantly damaging household wealth and freezing up the equity market, while at the same time AI companies need money from the equity markets to make good on the spending commitments that are growing the US economy. Unemployment will hit over 10% and we will see negative GDP growth How do I know? Charlie Munger famously spoke of the concept of a lalapalooza. He would say that whenever there is an extraordinary outcome, it is rarely due to only one cause. There is almost always a confluence of factors causing any major event. He gave the examples of the Moonies, a cult, and how they would use a confluence of methods to take a normal everyday person and convert them into a brainwashed fanatic over the course of a weekend. Right now there is a lalapalooza going on in this country. We are facing a significant threat of inflation, during a time where GDP growth is hinged on a single industry and there is an unknown amount of leverage in the system. This lalapalooza has 5 factors that I know of: AI - right now the GDP growth of the US is dependent on AI. In Q2 2025, AI was 30% of GDP growth in the US. AI based GDP growth is significantly hampered by increases in construction costs (building data centers), and electricity cost (operating data centers). None of these AI companies are profitable, and they rely on investor money to make these investments. Open AI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (they own xAI) want to go public in the largest planned IPOs in US history, all competing for investment dollars they need to make good on the over $1T of spending commitments they and other AI companies have made. The federal reserve- the fed is coming off of a number of years with high inflation that is not quite tamed yet. They have already stalled rate cuts and don’t have the ammo to cut rates to stimulate spending, especially if there was an increasing in the inflation rate. Private credit - Private credit is the lending arm of private equity. They have over $2T of AUM and I couldn’t find a reliable figure for the amount of leverage they use. They have two issues. The first is commercial real estate. CRE maturities will reach over $1T In 2026 and over $1.2T in 2027. These were loans taken in the low rate environment around the pandemic and will be refinancing at significantly higher rates, while at the same time rents are under pressure in the space as vacancies in office space hold steady at over 14%. Private credit has about $500b invested in CRE loans. The second problem is private equity. Private equity is the borrower in 70% of private credit deals according to the IMF. These deals are already under pressure, as firms bought at high multiples in the Covid and post Covid years that have since retracted. For many investments the increase in rates we have seen over the past few years has already stressed their cash flows and these companies are increasingly defaulting on their loans. An increase in inflation would only further accelerate this already established trend. Crypto - the current cryptocurrency total market cap is over $2.3T and crypto is held by over 4% of US households. It’s not a trivial portion of household wealth. The amount of leverage in the crypto market is unknown. The IMF notes that as an unregulated asset class with significant OTC trading it’s impossible to accuracy estimate the amount of leverage in the market. However it does note that some platforms offer leverage as high as 125x. Iran - Iran is the spark that will ignite the above powder keg. Right now the strait of Hormuz is closed, and that puts a kink in the entire global economy that will cause inflation over the next 18-24 months (optimistically). The Iran war is going to drive significant inflation for two reasons: Petroleum- approximately 20% of the world oil and natural gas pass through the strait of Hormuz each year. Oil is a key input in gasoline, diesel fuel, corn, cows, and car rides. Natural gas is a key input put in electricity, semiconductors, and vehicle manufacturing. Not petroleum - In addition to oil and natural gas, the strait also supplies the world with non petroleum products such as aluminum, fertilizer, and helium. The Persian gulf is responsible for 8% of global aluminum trade, a key input in vehicles, power lines, and soda cans. It also sees about a third of the worlds traded urea, which is the most common nitrogen fertilizer and a key input in corn, cows, and car grade ethanol. (Fun fact: another large historic source of urea has been Ukraine. Hopefully there’s not a war there jamming up the supply). Finally, Qatar, a country in the Persian gulf, produces about a third of the world’s helium, a key input in semiconductor manufacturing which goes into every electronic, consumer and military grade. Why bigger than 2008? In 2008 China offset the negative impacts of the US housing implosion to some extent, continuing to grow GDP >6% throughout the recession experienced in the US. This helped stabilize countries like Australia that supply the manufacturing powerhouse. Now, the Chinese government has significantly more debt than in 2008 (I could make a whole second post about how Chinese debt is worse than it seems because of the CCP’s use of private companies with CCP ownership and local level borrowing). China is also currently suffering a housing collapse of its own. The US government was also in a better position to help in 2008. Inflation was below the feds 2% target, so they were able to cut rates and the US government had a lower debt to GDP ratio, so they were able to issue debt to help stimulate the consumer. Now both the government and the fed have far fewer options to intervene and make things better. Ok, that was a lot, but I felt it necessary to prove out what is such a large claim. This is not fortune telling. Much of this is already happening (see sources). So what can we do? Professionally, I am taking this insight and helping my clients navigate through and make deals that still make sense given current events. Personally, I am strengthening my personal balance sheet, avoiding borrowings and trying to limit my spending. I wish us all the best. Things will get bad, but we will be able to get through it together. Sources AI GDP growth https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth AI IPOs https://fortune.com/2026/03/20/spacex-openai-anthropic-could-be-3-of-the-biggest-venture-backed-ipos-of-all-time/ AI commitments https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-makes-five-year-plan-meet-1-trillion-spending-pledges-ft-reports-2025-10-15/ Fed stalling rate cuts https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026#:~:text=January%2029%2C%202026,three%20rate%20cuts%20in%202025 . CRE maturity wall https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/cre-maturity-wall-reaches-950b-in-2024-peaks-in-2027 Negative net absorption of office space https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/august-2025-commercial-real-estate-market-insights Private credit involvement in CRE https://www.fortress.com/pws/knowledge/real-estate/whats-driving-the-growth-in-private-lending-to-commercial-real-estate#:~:text=Adam%20Bobker:%20For%20many%20years,commercial%20banks%20in%20this%20country . https://www.pgim.com/content/dam/pgim/us/en/pgim-real-estate/active/documents/spotlights/pgim-real-estate-spotlight-2025-private-credit.pdf Private credit involvement in private equity https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf PE troubles https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2024/1/us-private-equity-portfolio-company-bankruptcies-spiked-to-record-high-in-2023-80000182 https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/1/pe-backed-company-bankruptcies-in-us-reach-record-high-in-2024-87023731 https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/data-stories/us-corporate-default-risk-in-2025.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/private-credit-defaults-recoveries-2024-03-03-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com Crypto ownership https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/mar/cryptocurrency-ownership-us-households Crypto market cap https://www.coingecko.com/en/charts Crypto leverage https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/research/imf-and-g20/2024/imf-fsb-g20-crypto-asset-policy-implementation-roadmap.pdf Hormuz volume https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno#:~:text=About%2020%25%20of%20the%20world's%20oil%20and,war%20has%20sent%20global%20fuel%20prices%20soaring . Not petroleum source https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/iran-war-impact-helium-urea-sulfur.html China in 2008 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45493147 China house crash still going on https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-new-home-prices-extend-decline-february-2026-03-16/ submitted by /u/ECom_Finance_Guy [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
A Lalapalooza - The Iran War Will Cause an Economic Collapse in the US
2026-03-30T12:29:53+00:00
First my claim: Inflation from the Iran war is going to cause a financial crisis an order of magnitude larger than the 2008 housing crash. Inflation will topple private credit, as private equity loan defaults rise at the same time it’s hitting the CRE loan wall. That will create selling pressure that will spill into the stock market and the crypto market, significantly damaging household wealth and freezing up the equity market, while at the same time AI companies need money from the equity markets to make good on the spending commitments that are growing the US economy. Unemployment will hit over 10% and we will see negative GDP growth How do I know? Charlie Munger famously spoke of the concept of a lalapalooza. He would say that whenever there is an extraordinary outcome, it is rarely due to only one cause. There is almost always a confluence of factors causing any major event. He gave the examples of the Moonies, a cult, and how they would use a confluence of methods to take a normal everyday person and convert them into a brainwashed fanatic over the course of a weekend. Right now there is a lalapalooza going on in this country. We are facing a significant threat of inflation, during a time where GDP growth is hinged on a single industry and there is an unknown amount of leverage in the system. This lalapalooza has 5 factors that I know of: AI - right now the GDP growth of the US is dependent on AI. In Q2 2025, AI was 30% of GDP growth in the US. AI based GDP growth is significantly hampered by increases in construction costs (building data centers), and electricity cost (operating data centers). None of these AI companies are profitable, and they rely on investor money to make these investments. Open AI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (they own xAI) want to go public in the largest planned IPOs in US history, all competing for investment dollars they need to make good on the over $1T of spending commitments they and other AI companies have made. The federal reserve- the fed is coming off of a number of years with high inflation that is not quite tamed yet. They have already stalled rate cuts and don’t have the ammo to cut rates to stimulate spending, especially if there was an increasing in the inflation rate. Private credit - Private credit is the lending arm of private equity. They have over $2T of AUM and I couldn’t find a reliable figure for the amount of leverage they use. They have two issues. The first is commercial real estate. CRE maturities will reach over $1T In 2026 and over $1.2T in 2027. These were loans taken in the low rate environment around the pandemic and will be refinancing at significantly higher rates, while at the same time rents are under pressure in the space as vacancies in office space hold steady at over 14%. Private credit has about $500b invested in CRE loans. The second problem is private equity. Private equity is the borrower in 70% of private credit deals according to the IMF. These deals are already under pressure, as firms bought at high multiples in the Covid and post Covid years that have since retracted. For many investments the increase in rates we have seen over the past few years has already stressed their cash flows and these companies are increasingly defaulting on their loans. An increase in inflation would only further accelerate this already established trend. Crypto - the current cryptocurrency total market cap is over $2.3T and crypto is held by over 4% of US households. It’s not a trivial portion of household wealth. The amount of leverage in the crypto market is unknown. The IMF notes that as an unregulated asset class with significant OTC trading it’s impossible to accuracy estimate the amount of leverage in the market. However it does note that some platforms offer leverage as high as 125x. Iran - Iran is the spark that will ignite the above powder keg. Right now the strait of Hormuz is closed, and that puts a kink in the entire global economy that will cause inflation over the next 18-24 months (optimistically). The Iran war is going to drive significant inflation for two reasons: Petroleum- approximately 20% of the world oil and natural gas pass through the strait of Hormuz each year. Oil is a key input in gasoline, diesel fuel, corn, cows, and car rides. Natural gas is a key input put in electricity, semiconductors, and vehicle manufacturing. Not petroleum - In addition to oil and natural gas, the strait also supplies the world with non petroleum products such as aluminum, fertilizer, and helium. The Persian gulf is responsible for 8% of global aluminum trade, a key input in vehicles, power lines, and soda cans. It also sees about a third of the worlds traded urea, which is the most common nitrogen fertilizer and a key input in corn, cows, and car grade ethanol. (Fun fact: another large historic source of urea has been Ukraine. Hopefully there’s not a war there jamming up the supply). Finally, Qatar, a country in the Persian gulf, produces about a third of the world’s helium, a key input in semiconductor manufacturing which goes into every electronic, consumer and military grade. Why bigger than 2008? In 2008 China offset the negative impacts of the US housing implosion to some extent, continuing to grow GDP >6% throughout the recession experienced in the US. This helped stabilize countries like Australia that supply the manufacturing powerhouse. Now, the Chinese government has significantly more debt than in 2008 (I could make a whole second post about how Chinese debt is worse than it seems because of the CCP’s use of private companies with CCP ownership and local level borrowing). China is also currently suffering a housing collapse of its own. The US government was also in a better position to help in 2008. Inflation was below the feds 2% target, so they were able to cut rates and the US government had a lower debt to GDP ratio, so they were able to issue debt to help stimulate the consumer. Now both the government and the fed have far fewer options to intervene and make things better. Ok, that was a lot, but I felt it necessary to prove out what is such a large claim. This is not fortune telling. Much of this is already happening (see sources). So what can we do? Professionally, I am taking this insight and helping my clients navigate through and make deals that still make sense given current events. Personally, I am strengthening my personal balance sheet, avoiding borrowings and trying to limit my spending. I wish us all the best. Things will get bad, but we will be able to get through it together. Sources AI GDP growth https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth AI IPOs https://fortune.com/2026/03/20/spacex-openai-anthropic-could-be-3-of-the-biggest-venture-backed-ipos-of-all-time/ AI commitments https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-makes-five-year-plan-meet-1-trillion-spending-pledges-ft-reports-2025-10-15/ Fed stalling rate cuts https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026#:~:text=January%2029%2C%202026,three%20rate%20cuts%20in%202025 . CRE maturity wall https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/cre-maturity-wall-reaches-950b-in-2024-peaks-in-2027 Negative net absorption of office space https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/august-2025-commercial-real-estate-market-insights Private credit involvement in CRE https://www.fortress.com/pws/knowledge/real-estate/whats-driving-the-growth-in-private-lending-to-commercial-real-estate#:~:text=Adam%20Bobker:%20For%20many%20years,commercial%20banks%20in%20this%20country . https://www.pgim.com/content/dam/pgim/us/en/pgim-real-estate/active/documents/spotlights/pgim-real-estate-spotlight-2025-private-credit.pdf Private credit involvement in private equity https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf PE troubles https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2024/1/us-private-equity-portfolio-company-bankruptcies-spiked-to-record-high-in-2023-80000182 https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/1/pe-backed-company-bankruptcies-in-us-reach-record-high-in-2024-87023731 https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/data-stories/us-corporate-default-risk-in-2025.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/private-credit-defaults-recoveries-2024-03-03-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com Crypto ownership https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/mar/cryptocurrency-ownership-us-households Crypto market cap https://www.coingecko.com/en/charts Crypto leverage https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/research/imf-and-g20/2024/imf-fsb-g20-crypto-asset-policy-implementation-roadmap.pdf Hormuz volume https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno#:~:text=About%2020%25%20of%20the%20world's%20oil%20and,war%20has%20sent%20global%20fuel%20prices%20soaring . Not petroleum source https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/iran-war-impact-helium-urea-sulfur.html China in 2008 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45493147 China house crash still going on https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-new-home-prices-extend-decline-february-2026-03-16/ submitted by /u/ECom_Finance_Guy [link] [comments]
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
A Lalapalooza - The Iran War Will Cause an Economic Collapse in the US
2026-03-30T12:11:16+00:00
First my claim: Inflation from the Iran war is going to cause a financial crisis an order of magnitude larger than the 2008 housing crash. Inflation will topple private credit, as private equity loan defaults rise at the same time it’s hitting the CRE loan wall. That will create selling pressure that will spill into the stock market and the crypto market, significantly damaging household wealth and freezing up the equity market, while at the same time AI companies need money from the equity markets to make good on the spending commitments that are growing the US economy. Unemployment will hit over 10% and we will see negative GDP growth How do I know? Charlie Munger famously spoke of the concept of a lalapalooza. He would say that whenever there is an extraordinary outcome, it is rarely due to only one cause. There is almost always a confluence of factors causing any major event. He gave the examples of the Moonies, a cult, and how they would use a confluence of methods to take a normal everyday person and convert them into a brainwashed fanatic over the course of a weekend. Right now there is a lalapalooza going on in this country. We are facing a significant threat of inflation, during a time where GDP growth is hinged on a single industry and there is an unknown amount of leverage in the system. This lalapalooza has 5 factors that I know of: AI - right now the GDP growth of the US is dependent on AI. In Q2 2025, AI was 30% of GDP growth in the US. AI based GDP growth is significantly hampered by increases in construction costs (building data centers), and electricity cost (operating data centers). None of these AI companies are profitable, and they rely on investor money to make these investments. Open AI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (they own xAI) want to go public in the largest planned IPOs in US history, all competing for investment dollars they need to make good on the over $1T of spending commitments they and other AI companies have made. The federal reserve- the fed is coming off of a number of years with high inflation that is not quite tamed yet. They have already stalled rate cuts and don’t have the ammo to cut rates to stimulate spending, especially if there was an increasing in the inflation rate. Private credit - Private credit is the lending arm of private equity. They have over $2T of AUM and I couldn’t find a reliable figure for the amount of leverage they use. They have two issues. The first is commercial real estate. CRE maturities will reach over $1T In 2026 and over $1.2T in 2027. These were loans taken in the low rate environment around the pandemic and will be refinancing at significantly higher rates, while at the same time rents are under pressure in the space as vacancies in office space hold steady at over 14%. Private credit has about $500b invested in CRE loans. The second problem is private equity. Private equity is the borrower in 70% of private credit deals according to the IMF. These deals are already under pressure, as firms bought at high multiples in the Covid and post Covid years that have since retracted. For many investments the increase in rates we have seen over the past few years has already stressed their cash flows and these companies are increasingly defaulting on their loans. An increase in inflation would only further accelerate this already established trend. Crypto - the current cryptocurrency total market cap is over $2.3T and crypto is held by over 4% of US households. It’s not a trivial portion of household wealth. The amount of leverage in the crypto market is unknown. The IMF notes that as an unregulated asset class with significant OTC trading it’s impossible to accuracy estimate the amount of leverage in the market. However it does note that some platforms offer leverage as high as 125x. Iran - Iran is the spark that will ignite the above powder keg. Right now the strait of Hormuz is closed, and that puts a kink in the entire global economy that will cause inflation over the next 18-24 months (optimistically). The Iran war is going to drive significant inflation for two reasons: Petroleum- approximately 20% of the world oil and natural gas pass through the strait of Hormuz each year. Oil is a key input in gasoline, diesel fuel, corn, cows, and car rides. Natural gas is a key input put in electricity, semiconductors, and vehicle manufacturing. Not petroleum - In addition to oil and natural gas, the strait also supplies the world with non petroleum products such as aluminum, fertilizer, and helium. The Persian gulf is responsible for 8% of global aluminum trade, a key input in vehicles, power lines, and soda cans. It also sees about a third of the worlds traded urea, which is the most common nitrogen fertilizer and a key input in corn, cows, and car grade ethanol. (Fun fact: another large historic source of urea has been Ukraine. Hopefully there’s not a war there jamming up the supply). Finally, Qatar, a country in the Persian gulf, produces about a third of the world’s helium, a key input in semiconductor manufacturing which goes into every electronic, consumer and military grade. Why bigger than 2008? In 2008 China offset the negative impacts of the US housing implosion to some extent, continuing to grow GDP >6% throughout the recession experienced in the US. This helped stabilize countries like Australia that supply the manufacturing powerhouse. Now, the Chinese government has significantly more debt than in 2008 (I could make a whole second post about how Chinese debt is worse than it seems because of the CCP’s use of private companies with CCP ownership and local level borrowing). China is also currently suffering a housing collapse of its own. The US government was also in a better position to help in 2008. Inflation was below the feds 2% target, so they were able to cut rates and the US government had a lower debt to GDP ratio, so they were able to issue debt to help stimulate the consumer. Now both the government and the fed have far fewer options to intervene and make things better. Ok, that was a lot, but I felt it necessary to prove out what is such a large claim. This is not fortune telling. Much of this is already happening (see sources). So what can we do? Professionally, I am taking this insight and helping my clients navigate through and make deals that still make sense given current events. Personally, I am strengthening my personal balance sheet, avoiding borrowings and trying to limit my spending. I wish us all the best. Things will get bad, but we will be able to get through it together. Sources AI GDP growth https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth AI IPOs https://fortune.com/2026/03/20/spacex-openai-anthropic-could-be-3-of-the-biggest-venture-backed-ipos-of-all-time/ AI commitments https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-makes-five-year-plan-meet-1-trillion-spending-pledges-ft-reports-2025-10-15/ Fed stalling rate cuts https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026#:~:text=January%2029%2C%202026,three%20rate%20cuts%20in%202025 . CRE maturity wall https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/cre-maturity-wall-reaches-950b-in-2024-peaks-in-2027 Negative net absorption of office space https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/august-2025-commercial-real-estate-market-insights Private credit involvement in CRE https://www.fortress.com/pws/knowledge/real-estate/whats-driving-the-growth-in-private-lending-to-commercial-real-estate#:~:text=Adam%20Bobker:%20For%20many%20years,commercial%20banks%20in%20this%20country . https://www.pgim.com/content/dam/pgim/us/en/pgim-real-estate/active/documents/spotlights/pgim-real-estate-spotlight-2025-private-credit.pdf Private credit involvement in private equity https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf PE troubles https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2024/1/us-private-equity-portfolio-company-bankruptcies-spiked-to-record-high-in-2023-80000182 https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/1/pe-backed-company-bankruptcies-in-us-reach-record-high-in-2024-87023731 https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/data-stories/us-corporate-default-risk-in-2025.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/private-credit-defaults-recoveries-2024-03-03-2025?utm_source=chatgpt.com Crypto ownership https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/mar/cryptocurrency-ownership-us-households Crypto market cap https://www.coingecko.com/en/charts Crypto leverage https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/research/imf-and-g20/2024/imf-fsb-g20-crypto-asset-policy-implementation-roadmap.pdf Hormuz volume https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno#:~:text=About%2020%25%20of%20the%20world's%20oil%20and,war%20has%20sent%20global%20fuel%20prices%20soaring . Not petroleum source https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/iran-war-impact-helium-urea-sulfur.html China in 2008 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45493147 China house crash still going on https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-new-home-prices-extend-decline-february-2026-03-16/ submitted by /u/ECom_Finance_Guy [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
APA Corporation $APA Shares Sold by Wedge Capital Management L L P NC - MarketBeat
2026-03-30T11:40:20+00:00
APA Corporation $APA Shares Sold by Wedge Capital Management L L P NC MarketBeat
reddit · mention · 1.00
Oil price and Producer & operators Ratio (XOM, DVN., DOW, APA etc)
2026-03-30T02:55:15+00:00
If Oil goes up $150- Does stocks of producers, service operators -- XOM, DVN APA DOW and All others go up with same ratio? I mean does it hit a ceiling. Reason for asking is because XOM CVX are already at all time high. submitted by /u/Leather-Wheel1115 [link] [comments]
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Is APA Corporation (APA) A Good Stock To Buy Now? - Insider Monkey
2026-03-30T02:07:47+00:00
Is APA Corporation (APA) A Good Stock To Buy Now? Insider Monkey
news · primary_subject · 1.00
Is APA Corporation (APA) A Good Stock To Buy Now? - Yahoo Finance
2026-03-30T01:58:00+00:00
Is APA Corporation (APA) A Good Stock To Buy Now? Yahoo Finance
reddit · primary_subject · 0.85
Are we heading towards “Lost Decades” like Japan?
2026-03-28T19:00:06+00:00
Some similarities between our economy and Japan’s in the 90’s - aging population, currency devaluation, decline in manufacturing, economic policies targeting inflation. But definitely not an expert, so please share your informed opinions! submitted by /u/pro_vagabond [link] [comments]